Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."