Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.